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Economists at Goldman Sachs Lower Probability of US Recession
Monday. August 19 at 1:30 PM
1 min. readEconomists at global investment firm Goldman Sachs have reduced the likelihood of a recession in the United States within the next year to 20%. This adjustment is based on recent retail sales and unemployment data. The team, led by Jan Hatzius, mentioned that if the US jobs report for August, set to be released on Sept. 6, shows positive results, the recession probability could drop further to 15%. They are also confident that the US Federal Reserve will decrease interest rates by 0.25% in their upcoming meeting. However, a negative jobs report could lead to a 0.5% rate cut. Despite the positive economic indicators, some experts, like JP Morgan's Bruce Kasman, remain cautious due to signs of weakening labor demand and global manufacturing slowdown. The overall uncertainty in the political landscape adds to the economic concerns.